[h=1]Why Brees is the top fantasy QB[/h][h=3]Graham, Colston, Stills helps put him past Peyton Manning, Rodgers[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Peyton Manning won the NFL MVP award in 2013, and his league-leading 406 points in ESPN.com standard scoring made a strong case for his being the MVP in fantasy football as well.
Those looking for a repeat of that performance have caused Manning to rank fourth overall in average draft position (ADP) in snake drafts and sixth in ADP in auction drafts. Those picks would be recommended if the same factors were in place as last season, but there is a litany of reasons pointing to his fantasy point decline in 2014, as detailed here.
Fortunately, there is a quarterback who has multiple factors indicating he might be able to step up and take Manning's place as the most effective fantasy football quarterback in 2014: Drew Brees.
Brees already has been a dominant QB1 the past three years. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Brees is the most prolific fantasy quarterback in that time frame on a cumulative basis (1,065 points) and is tied with Manning on a per-game basis (22.19).Those figures would give Brees at least second-round caliber value in nearly every draft room, but the high volume of upside factors for the New Orleans Saints' passing attack make Brees likely to repeat Manning's fantasy MVP-caliber 2013 season, and that makes him a first-round draft pick in my book.
The case for this revolves around four elements:
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[h=3]Elite veteran pass-catching talents[/h]Jimmy Graham is incredibly dangerous at or near the goal line, as his seven touchdown receptions on short passes (those thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield) were more than any other tight end had last season. Graham also has rare scoring prowess on vertical throws (those traveling 11 or more yards through the air), as his nine trips to pay dirt at this route depth tied him with Cincinnati's A.J. Green for the most in the league in that category.
Marques Colston's 75 receptions for 943 yards and five touchdowns last season would not seem to put him into upper-tier wide receiver status, but his vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) number say otherwise. Colston posted a 12.0 VYPA, despite battling a foot injury for most of the season. For perspective, that VYPA total placed 11th out of 28 wide receivers with at least 50 vertical targets. Colston's foot looks to be healed up now, so he has the capacity to be a top-10 vertical wide receiver.
The breakout candidate of this group isKenny Stills. He posted superb YPA totals in many areas last season, including a 17.5 VYPA (ranked third among wide receivers), a 23.9 stretch vertical YPA (SVYPA, production on passes thrown 20 or more yards, ranked second) and overall YPA (13.4, ranked first). Stills saw only 51 targets (ranked tied for 86th) and yet he managed to post WR5-caliber fantasy numbers (88 points, ranked tied for 48th).
Stills is moving from a backup role into a starting position. If this promotion leads the Saints to direct twice as many passes in Stills' direction and he keeps his YPA levels anywhere near last season's rates, Stills could end up as a viable WR2 in fantasy football and give Brees a huge YPA and fantasy point boost.
[h=3]An offensive rookie of the year candidate[/h]Brandin Cooks looks to be on the verge of an offensive rookie of the year-caliber season. He joined New Orleans as a highly touted wide receiver at Oregon State (he ranked third on my list of the best wide receivers in the 2014 draft) and has done nothing but impress this offseason. He earned the nickname "Lightning" from teammate Keenan Lewis, and has showcased superb run-after-catch skills (illustrated in this Vine posted by the Saints).
Brees has said that Cooks "has it all. He's got short-area quickness, great transition ability and phenomenal straight-line speed."
Even if Cooks sees only 75-100 targets, he could have a huge impact on the New Orleans passing attack.
[h=3]Extremely favorable schedule[/h]One of the keys to Manning's dominant 2013 campaign was a set of opponents that was almost ready-made for a pass-heavy offense to post record-setting numbers. According to my pass-defense matchup charts, Manning had the most favorable matchup points total of any quarterback last season.
This year, Brees is tied with Eli Manning as having the most favorable pass-defense schedule in the NFL. The Saints' offense is difficult to stop under any circumstances, but when the opposing team has subpar defensive coverage personnel, it should mean full speed ahead for this aerial attack.
[h=3]A defense that can make offenses pay for trying to pass[/h]The side effect of going all out in the passing game is it forces the opponent to adopt a similar strategy. That could pose a problem if New Orleans had a defense that needed protecting, but this group has transitioned into one of the strongest in the NFL.
The Saints ranked fourth in sacks (49) and second in pass yards allowed (3,105) last season, and that was before they added one of the NFL's best center-field free safeties inJairus Byrd. Byrd should give New Orleans a huge upgrade in medium pass-depth coverage (passes thrown 11-19 yards) and in vertical pass ball hawking. He and Kenny Vaccaro may be the only pair who can compete with Seattle's Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas as the best safety tandem in the NFL.
And if the defense is limiting the opposing offense to three-and-outs -- or taking the ball away at a high rate -- that puts the keys back into the ignition for the Saints' offense.
[h=3]Bottom line[/h]A common danger in picking players with high upside potential is they often have a low fantasy point floor.
That isn't the case with Brees, as his elite durability (he has missed only one game in his eight-year New Orleans career) and aforementioned top-shelf fantasy point totals mean he is likely to be among the top two or three fantasy quarterbacks, regardless of whether these factors pan out.
If this combination of upward trending elements does find the mark, however, Brees has 400-point potential. There may not be another player in fantasy football who can reach that total. Add it up and it means Brees is the best quarterback in fantasy football. He also should be taken in the first round of every draft, in the top 5 in most drafts and as the No. 1 overall pick in any draft that assigns extra value to quarterbacks (i.e., two-quarterback leagues, leagues that give six points per passing touchdown, etc.).
And because he is available as a second-round pick in most ESPN draft rooms, nearly every fantasy owner should have a chance to select him.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Peyton Manning won the NFL MVP award in 2013, and his league-leading 406 points in ESPN.com standard scoring made a strong case for his being the MVP in fantasy football as well.
Those looking for a repeat of that performance have caused Manning to rank fourth overall in average draft position (ADP) in snake drafts and sixth in ADP in auction drafts. Those picks would be recommended if the same factors were in place as last season, but there is a litany of reasons pointing to his fantasy point decline in 2014, as detailed here.
Fortunately, there is a quarterback who has multiple factors indicating he might be able to step up and take Manning's place as the most effective fantasy football quarterback in 2014: Drew Brees.
Brees already has been a dominant QB1 the past three years. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Brees is the most prolific fantasy quarterback in that time frame on a cumulative basis (1,065 points) and is tied with Manning on a per-game basis (22.19).Those figures would give Brees at least second-round caliber value in nearly every draft room, but the high volume of upside factors for the New Orleans Saints' passing attack make Brees likely to repeat Manning's fantasy MVP-caliber 2013 season, and that makes him a first-round draft pick in my book.
The case for this revolves around four elements:
<offer></offer>
[h=3]Elite veteran pass-catching talents[/h]Jimmy Graham is incredibly dangerous at or near the goal line, as his seven touchdown receptions on short passes (those thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield) were more than any other tight end had last season. Graham also has rare scoring prowess on vertical throws (those traveling 11 or more yards through the air), as his nine trips to pay dirt at this route depth tied him with Cincinnati's A.J. Green for the most in the league in that category.
Marques Colston's 75 receptions for 943 yards and five touchdowns last season would not seem to put him into upper-tier wide receiver status, but his vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) number say otherwise. Colston posted a 12.0 VYPA, despite battling a foot injury for most of the season. For perspective, that VYPA total placed 11th out of 28 wide receivers with at least 50 vertical targets. Colston's foot looks to be healed up now, so he has the capacity to be a top-10 vertical wide receiver.
The breakout candidate of this group isKenny Stills. He posted superb YPA totals in many areas last season, including a 17.5 VYPA (ranked third among wide receivers), a 23.9 stretch vertical YPA (SVYPA, production on passes thrown 20 or more yards, ranked second) and overall YPA (13.4, ranked first). Stills saw only 51 targets (ranked tied for 86th) and yet he managed to post WR5-caliber fantasy numbers (88 points, ranked tied for 48th).
Stills is moving from a backup role into a starting position. If this promotion leads the Saints to direct twice as many passes in Stills' direction and he keeps his YPA levels anywhere near last season's rates, Stills could end up as a viable WR2 in fantasy football and give Brees a huge YPA and fantasy point boost.
[h=3]An offensive rookie of the year candidate[/h]Brandin Cooks looks to be on the verge of an offensive rookie of the year-caliber season. He joined New Orleans as a highly touted wide receiver at Oregon State (he ranked third on my list of the best wide receivers in the 2014 draft) and has done nothing but impress this offseason. He earned the nickname "Lightning" from teammate Keenan Lewis, and has showcased superb run-after-catch skills (illustrated in this Vine posted by the Saints).
Brees has said that Cooks "has it all. He's got short-area quickness, great transition ability and phenomenal straight-line speed."
Even if Cooks sees only 75-100 targets, he could have a huge impact on the New Orleans passing attack.
[h=3]Extremely favorable schedule[/h]One of the keys to Manning's dominant 2013 campaign was a set of opponents that was almost ready-made for a pass-heavy offense to post record-setting numbers. According to my pass-defense matchup charts, Manning had the most favorable matchup points total of any quarterback last season.
This year, Brees is tied with Eli Manning as having the most favorable pass-defense schedule in the NFL. The Saints' offense is difficult to stop under any circumstances, but when the opposing team has subpar defensive coverage personnel, it should mean full speed ahead for this aerial attack.
[h=3]A defense that can make offenses pay for trying to pass[/h]The side effect of going all out in the passing game is it forces the opponent to adopt a similar strategy. That could pose a problem if New Orleans had a defense that needed protecting, but this group has transitioned into one of the strongest in the NFL.
The Saints ranked fourth in sacks (49) and second in pass yards allowed (3,105) last season, and that was before they added one of the NFL's best center-field free safeties inJairus Byrd. Byrd should give New Orleans a huge upgrade in medium pass-depth coverage (passes thrown 11-19 yards) and in vertical pass ball hawking. He and Kenny Vaccaro may be the only pair who can compete with Seattle's Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas as the best safety tandem in the NFL.
And if the defense is limiting the opposing offense to three-and-outs -- or taking the ball away at a high rate -- that puts the keys back into the ignition for the Saints' offense.
[h=3]Bottom line[/h]A common danger in picking players with high upside potential is they often have a low fantasy point floor.
That isn't the case with Brees, as his elite durability (he has missed only one game in his eight-year New Orleans career) and aforementioned top-shelf fantasy point totals mean he is likely to be among the top two or three fantasy quarterbacks, regardless of whether these factors pan out.
If this combination of upward trending elements does find the mark, however, Brees has 400-point potential. There may not be another player in fantasy football who can reach that total. Add it up and it means Brees is the best quarterback in fantasy football. He also should be taken in the first round of every draft, in the top 5 in most drafts and as the No. 1 overall pick in any draft that assigns extra value to quarterbacks (i.e., two-quarterback leagues, leagues that give six points per passing touchdown, etc.).
And because he is available as a second-round pick in most ESPN draft rooms, nearly every fantasy owner should have a chance to select him.
